During the period from July through the first 1-2 weeks of September, anomalously warm conditions persisted in East Asia, with rainfall deficits in the northwestern Pacific around the Japanese archipelago. Anomalously warm conditions were seen in Canada and the U.S.A. Particularly, western coastal USA suffered a hot period and the drought conditions have been continuing for more than 12 months. The forecasts failed to capture the drought signal for this period. Excess rainfall was registered in northwest part of India while further west, anomalously dry conditions were seen in the Middle East. The mid-latitude regions from Europe to East Asia experienced anomalously warm conditions. In the southern hemisphere, some regions of the Australian continent were anomalously cold, particularly in August. While rainfall anomalies there were positive in the northeast and southwest during July, they were negative in the east and southwest of the country during August. Warmer and drier than normal conditions were seen in central portions of South America, while the equatorial Americas received above-normal rainfall. The forecasts were not successful in predicting the observed dry and hot anomalous conditions in South America. The warm sea surface anomalies in the eastern Pacific have weakened in magnitude since late August. The positive IOD event has also weakened since approximately the same period, and has almost terminated.

The APCC forecast for OND, 2008, indicates near neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific, with slight warming in the eastern tropical Pacific. Most of the Maritime Continent and parts of nearby northern Australian continent may experience anomalously warm and dry conditions. Further south, there is a chance that the rainfall from southeast Australia to New Zealand may be less than normal. On the other hand, some Polynesian islands in the tropics to the east of Indonesia, including Papua New Guinea, may receive above-normal rainfall.

East Asia may see anomalously warm and dry signals, particularly in October; however, the southern portion of the Japanese archipelago may receive more than normal rainfall. The winter monsoon signals in the Indian sub-continent are likely to be weaker than normal. Anomalously wet conditions are likely in tropical and subtropical northwest Africa.

Northwest North America may experience anomalously cold and dry conditions owing to a likely weakening of the Aleutian low. The forecast also indicates slightly warmer and drier-than-normal conditions in parts of south central North America.

Parts of equatorial central Americas, including Venezuela, may receive slightly above normal rainfall, while the tropical Brazilian region is likely to experience warmer than normal temperatures.

IThe tropical Pacific needs to be monitored for any developments.