Neutral ENSO conditions have now been present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the period from June to August, 2008 (up to 13 August, 2008), with near normal sea surface temperature (SST) over the equatorial central Pacific and above normal SST over the eastern Pacific. The Nino 3.4 index has returned to near-average since June 2008 and Nino 1+2 has remained positive since March 2008.

It has been warm and dry over the western US, the eastern Canadian region and central north to east Asia for the 2008 JJA period (based on data until August 14, 2008). Below-average temperatures were seen over the Indian subcontinent and western parts of South America. The Indian subcontinent and South China Sea saw wetter than normal conditions. Suppressed rainfall was found over Brazil and the Mediterranean Sea.

The APCC forecast for SON, 2008, indicates that a broad region covering from the Maritime Continent through India and Pakistan to southern Middle East will experience anomalously cool conditions. On the other hand, southwestern Australia may experience warmer than normal conditions. Less than normal rainfall is predicted in the regions from the Bay of Bengal through the South China Sea and the Phillipines. The currently observed weak positive IOD conditions may continue, as indicated by the typical signature in anomalous rainfall over the tropical Indian Ocean, with less-than-normal rainfall in southern Sumatra and Java. Anomalously dry conditions are expected over the regions of eastern Australia and northern New Zealand.

The forecast also indicates slight cold conditions in the northeastern region of North America, mainly covering eastern Canada. The regions from southwestern US to northern Mexico may experience dry conditions.

Equatorial and northern parts of South America will probably see cool and wet conditions.

Northwestern Europe and the central part of northern Africa are expected to experience warmer-than-normal conditions. Most parts of western African Continent are likely to receive surplus rainfall. Tropical North Africa may experience warm and wet conditions.

It is seen that near-neutral ENSO conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and a weak IOD is in development in the tropical India Ocean. September-November is still climatologically a typhoon-intensive period. The conditions should be monitored closely in light of all these issues.